Elections 2013 in Pakistan and my predictions of seats

5 May

Pakistan is going through an election year and we would be having it on 11th May 2013 just a week later. I am following Pakistani politics for few years now and seat prediction given in this post is based on guess work.

Brief Background

Pakistan is a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural country. There are many factors on which voters decide their choice. These include region/province, language, ethnicity, urban/rural, religious/sectarian affiliation and Income level. There have been two main stream political parties having appeal and representation throughout Pakistan, i-e. Pakistan People’s Party, Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz and recently Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf has emerged due to hard work of cricketer turned politician Imran Khan.
pakistanmap

Election 2008

There are 272 directly contested national assembly seats, while 60 reserved seats for women and 10 for non-Muslims (minorities). PTI, JI and some other regional parties boycotted the 2008 elections (results given below)

1 Pakistan People’s Party 94
2 Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz 71
3 Pakistan Muslim League Q 42
4 Muttahida Qaumi Movement 19
5 Awami National Party 10
6 Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam F 5
7 Pakistan Muslim League (F) 4
8 Independents 18

Punjab and Sindh

Major chunk of seats come from Punjab (148) which is the most populated province while share of Sindh, KPK, Baluchistan and FATA is 61, 35, 14 and 12 respectively and 2 seats of Islamabad (capitol territory). So Punjab is a battle ground and all the three major parties are present here. PPP in southern Punjab, while PTI and PML N is strong in central and upper Punjab. PPP is also strong in Sindh rural while MQM is strong in urban Sindh (Karachi, Hyderabad) and in Karachi, PTI and JI would be putting up fight on few seats with MQM.

KPK and Baluchistan

In case of KPK, there are six main contenders, PTI, PPP, ANP, JI, JUI F and PML N. PML N and PTI would be battling in Hazara region of KPK, while ANP, PTI, JUI F and JI in pastoon belt of KPK, FATA and Baluchistan. In case of Baluchistan, there are regional parties putting up strong fight and BNP Mengal and National Party got most chance along with few seat of PKMAP. In rural Sindh PML N allies PML F (along with other small parties) and it would be giving a tough contest against PPP.

1 Pakistan Muslim League N 75
2 Pakistan tehreek e Insaf 66
3 Pakistan People’s Party 38
4 Jamaat e Islami 5
5 Pakistan Muslim League Q 12
6 Muttahida Qaumi Movement 14
7 Awami National Party 6
8 Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam F 7
9 Baluchistan Nationalist Parties 10
10 Pakistan Muslim League F 8
11 Independents 15

So there would be a hung parliament most probably. In order to form government, they need to prove clear majority. 137 out 272 directly contested seats.

Data from wikipedia

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One Response to “Elections 2013 in Pakistan and my predictions of seats”

  1. tariq729me May 5, 2013 at 10:36 pm #

    Reblogged this on tariq729me's Blog.

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